Sunday was much warmer than I predicted as the warm air took over, but we got stuck in a cool spot for Monday.
As I came home from a seminar on Monday I noticed on the car thermometer (not perfect I know) that the temps outside were at 50-51 leading up to just south of Lickdale. Then when I passed the underpass at I-81 on 72 heading home, the temp dropped 10 degrees. Yes, it was 40 when I got home.
This is an example of why Sunday and Monday’s forecast was tough: Where would the cool air get trapped?
Side Note: A blessing from the warm sunshine is that snow becomes snowman friendly. Yes, you can pack it and make all kinds of stuff with it. If you got snow might as well enjoy it ... right?
Now onto our big rain storm for Wed. Several things to keep in mind:
- Warm air will surge north with heavy rain (1”), but cool air will be stubborn to leave. Notice there is little wind today = surface high pressure = relatively cool air.
- Temps will drop into mid-30s tonight, then slowly rise overnight and during the day Wed.
- Although temps will surge into the 50s on Wed, it will likely not occur until late in the day.
- Tomorrow night will remain very mild as colder air from west slowly filters in.
The 5 days of weather from Mon – Fri of next week will average cold. That is pretty clear. But will it be stormy? Calm? Or some of each? One storm that likely look impressive along the Gulf Coast will likely head out to sea. It has been hard to get northern and southern branches of jet stream to phase this year. The timing has just been off a little. So I doubt this will move up the east coast. This then opens the door for a more significant storm to develop along the coast on Tue/Wed. This could be a slow mover with a closed upper low (Blizzard had one too. It was not a phased system). So some things to keep an eye on.
Weather Points for Next 7 Days:
- The Groundhog: Yes, Phil did not see his shadow. Make of it whatever you want.
- Flooding: Close but all for Naught: Heavy rain combined with snowmelt will combine to make for some pretty good rises on area creeks and streams. But nothing to really get worried about.
- Winter Returns: January thaw will end Thu, as winter returns in a step down fashion. Seasonal weather, until next week when it may turn quite cold.
- No Snow Friday: Low pressure will develop on stalled front but remain off shore.
- Snow Returns: Lots of debate. Monday is interesting, and what happens Monday may have a significant impact on what happens with another system Tue/Wed of next week. It is likely we will have one snowstorm next week at some point.
Tuesday: 42. Sunny. Seasonally mild. Cloudy overnight.
Wednesday: 55 late in the day. Rain ending by 5 pm. Gusty winds late.
Thursday: 45. Mild morning. Temps fairly steady. Colder at night.
Friday: 37. Sunny. Seasonal.
Saturday: 42. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Sunday: 45. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Monday: 34. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow late and at night.