A damp, dreary day on tap for today. Not that unusual for us. We are used to it I think. Looking ahead could winter, in the form of some snow and/or colder weather, make an appearance? Maybe. But before that I have a little “rant.”
Before the winter season came upon us, many forecasters issued their winter prognostications. It was unusual to see such agreement on the idea of a cold to very cold winter with well above average snowfall. It was amazing to see such extreme forecasts for the winter.
I am not a long-range forecaster, neither have the skill, nor the time, so I didn’t issue a winter outlook. I did say around Christmas/New Year’s that I doubted a sustained very cold pattern would set-up. That is all.
Now Dec was milder, and Jan is starting off milder than these forecasts predicted. Snowfall is lacking completely. But do I hear admissions that things are not going as thought? No. I hear, “It’s going according to plan”! Say what?!
Then another group of forecasters who are more cautious, are calling the others out, accusing them of being ‘snake oil salesmen’ only looking to gain followers and attention for themselves. Yet, what are the calling outers doing? Gaining attention for themselves!
It is sad. Where is the integrity? If your forecast is not working out, admit it then move on. Let your forecast speak for itself. Please stop the self-promotion. And that goes for everybody.
Back to weather:
Subtle changes are occurring in the pattern.
- Canada’s supply of true arctic air is reloading. It had been void of anything substantial, but that is changing.
- The track of storms from Texas to Michigan, flooding us with deep heavy moisture and warm air is coming to an end … at least for now.
The next system comes at the end of week/next weekend. This has potential to bring a little more. But it may not be that much either. It’s just something to watch.
Until then, enjoy.