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Faithful Forecast

A Forecast for Southern Schuylkill and Northern Lebanon County  

Damp and Cool Mother's Day then Warmer

5/11/2017

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Discussion:

Well, the mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower has worked out better than expected. It’s just a LONG shower 😊.  Yes, the rain has held together better than I thought it would and further east than thought, but it fit the basic forecast idea: some partial sun (got it) and it could get wet (got it).

Moving forward, Friday is looking drier than today, but showers could develop later in the day. It will continue to be cool as a storm system from the plains phases with a system diving SE out of Canada. This will create a formidable storm along the east coast for Sat into Sun. This will produce rain late Friday night through most of Saturday. Showers and even a heavier thundershower will be possible on Sun (Mother’s Day) with an increasing gusty NW wind. It will remain cool both days, esp. Sat.  There will be some sun on Sunday, however.

This storm slowly departs on Monday and leaves us with a beautiful stretch of weather through Wednesday and perhaps through Friday. It will become warmer and more like early summer/late spring.

Couple of caveats regarding this much talked about warm-up or “sudden summer” that I am hearing about next week:
  1. The average high temperature for the middle of next week is in the low 70s. So temperatures reaching the upper 70's or lower 80's nothing unusual. It is more unusual to stay so cool for so long in the middle May.
  2. A potential struggle for control will take place between a big High pressure to our N-NW and a big High pressure off the east coast to our SE. If the NNW High wins, we are much cooler. IF the SE High wins we are much warmer. This boundary should stay to our north most of next week ... however, a little shift and our temperatures could be very different than I am thinking right now (after Wed in particular). 
 
My point is that just because a big ridge is building in does not mean that we are having widespread 85 degree temperatures like the middle of summer. We do not live at 5000 feet, we live at ground level, which can be a bit different than the upper levels of the atmosphere.

It will warm up, and become pleasantly warm by next Wed.

 The Dailies:

  • Friday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Afternoon showers developing.   
  • Saturday: Cloudy. Rain. Very cool.  
  • Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Some partial sunshine. Showers likely with chance for thundershower. Cool and becoming windy.
  • Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Milder.  
  • Tuesday: Sunshine and beautiful blue skies. Warm.  
  • Wednesday: Sunshine. Warm.  
  • Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.      
Enjoy. 
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    Author

    Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.

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