Discussion:
Since this is the last official month of winter (winter months are defined as Dec – Feb), I thought I would revisit my winter outlook.
In essence, I missed the trough, ridge location. I really thought the trough would reside in west-central US not along the West Coast. In fact, I could not find a forecast that did think the trough would be this far west. It has turned a lot of winter forecasts into a pile of rubble. The west has had a much wetter, snowier, and colder winter than expected and the east has had a much warmer and less snowy winter than expected.
Now entering this final month of winter, there was much talk of the first half of this month being ideal for possible snow and cold in the east. I had a healthy skepticism over it and stated it numerous times. But I should have stuck with it and not gone with the idea of snow for us in my last update. What do I mean?
The snow for Sunday will be a snow shower or two at best as storm does not organize until off shore. Surprise? Not really for this winter. The Tuesday/Wednesday storm will be our famous lifting through the Eastern Great Lakes systems that we’ve seen a lot of this year. This will lead to a cold and raw day Tuesday (no we will not reach 50 degrees as cold air will get stuck again like it has all year, wonder when the models will ever catch on to this?) with some ice, then a cold rain. Some could be heavy at times. Then it gets warm Wed as cold front moves through and removes that old stale cold air.
And then we might get to wash, rinse, repeat next weekend. If you want snow … go to Northern New England or out West. Not happening here at least not yet.
Dailies:
Since this is the last official month of winter (winter months are defined as Dec – Feb), I thought I would revisit my winter outlook.
- Colder than last winter … This may end up closer than anyone expected and I mean anyone. No forecast was given showing us well above average. Through January we are nearly 4 degrees above average for the winter. Last year we ended around 4.0 – 4.5 degrees above average. If February is anything like January we could beat last year which would be a shock!
- Similar snowfall totals to last year … This is going down in flames.
- Total moisture looks to be about average to slightly above … this is looking good.
- Weather woes possible from Thanksgiving to New Year’s … this was good especially early on.
In essence, I missed the trough, ridge location. I really thought the trough would reside in west-central US not along the West Coast. In fact, I could not find a forecast that did think the trough would be this far west. It has turned a lot of winter forecasts into a pile of rubble. The west has had a much wetter, snowier, and colder winter than expected and the east has had a much warmer and less snowy winter than expected.
Now entering this final month of winter, there was much talk of the first half of this month being ideal for possible snow and cold in the east. I had a healthy skepticism over it and stated it numerous times. But I should have stuck with it and not gone with the idea of snow for us in my last update. What do I mean?
The snow for Sunday will be a snow shower or two at best as storm does not organize until off shore. Surprise? Not really for this winter. The Tuesday/Wednesday storm will be our famous lifting through the Eastern Great Lakes systems that we’ve seen a lot of this year. This will lead to a cold and raw day Tuesday (no we will not reach 50 degrees as cold air will get stuck again like it has all year, wonder when the models will ever catch on to this?) with some ice, then a cold rain. Some could be heavy at times. Then it gets warm Wed as cold front moves through and removes that old stale cold air.
And then we might get to wash, rinse, repeat next weekend. If you want snow … go to Northern New England or out West. Not happening here at least not yet.
Dailies:
- Friday: Cold for a change. Sun and clouds. Flurry possible.
- Saturday: Cold with sun and clouds.
- Sunday: Seasonal with a chance for a snow shower.
- Monday: Seasonal with sun and clouds.
- Tuesday: Cloudy. Cool. Raw. Sleet/freezing rain changing to rain.
- Wednesday: Mild to warm with rain ending. Clearing. Possibly very windy.
- Thursday: Seasonal. Sun and clouds.
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