Since this is the last official month of winter (winter months are defined as Dec – Feb), I thought I would revisit my winter outlook.
In essence, I missed the trough, ridge location. I really thought the trough would reside in west-central US not along the West Coast. In fact, I could not find a forecast that did think the trough would be this far west. It has turned a lot of winter forecasts into a pile of rubble. The west has had a much wetter, snowier, and colder winter than expected and the east has had a much warmer and less snowy winter than expected.
Now entering this final month of winter, there was much talk of the first half of this month being ideal for possible snow and cold in the east. I had a healthy skepticism over it and stated it numerous times. But I should have stuck with it and not gone with the idea of snow for us in my last update. What do I mean?
The snow for Sunday will be a snow shower or two at best as storm does not organize until off shore. Surprise? Not really for this winter. The Tuesday/Wednesday storm will be our famous lifting through the Eastern Great Lakes systems that we’ve seen a lot of this year. This will lead to a cold and raw day Tuesday (no we will not reach 50 degrees as cold air will get stuck again like it has all year, wonder when the models will ever catch on to this?) with some ice, then a cold rain. Some could be heavy at times. Then it gets warm Wed as cold front moves through and removes that old stale cold air.
And then we might get to wash, rinse, repeat next weekend. If you want snow … go to Northern New England or out West. Not happening here at least not yet.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.