Cold but Warmth is Coming!

Good Cold Monday Morning! Since we are now well into January (nearly 1/3 of the way), I thought it appropriate to look back and see how my winter outlook is doing.  So here goes:

1. Storm Tracks: I had through the Great Lakes, Clippers from the W-NW, and Southern Plains E-NE just to our south. This has been right on target and the reason we have not had much snow. Too many though the Great Lakes and not enough just to our south. But we have lots of winter to go through yet.
2. Temperatures: December ended at +1.5 above average. Jan stands at +0.5 through yesterday, however, it will fall below average after today and Tuesday, (which is rather impressive considering we have not had a snow cover. Snow can drop temperatures a good 3-5 degrees on average). But we will warm up a bit starting Wed. So, the temperatures are a tad milder than I thought, but not off that much from the average to slightly below for all of winter.
3. Precipitation: Close to normal, but a little behind. Again, close over all to the average and slightly above.
4. Mixed Precipitation Events: Talked about more snow/ice/rain events and yes, we have had several with another coming Tuesday and perhaps over the weekend.
5. Snowfall: Failing miserably so far. I thought above average with near 50” total. I have measured 3.5” for the season. This is well behind where I thought we would be. It is possible a snow-blitz hits us, but right now, I really do not see that happening. And although most of the winter outlook is going close to expectation so far, snow is the biggest measure people use to evaluate winter. Sure enough, I’ve had folks say “Where’s winter?” Breaking News: Winter does not mean lots of snow!  Besides this winter is not yet over. Snowfall can happen in March and April too. So, there is time …

This Weeks’ Weather: 

There is an old saying in weather: One coast at a time. When the west coast is getting hammered with big storms the east is typically quiet. And this week will be rather quiet. That does not mean there will not be some weather going on, just nothing significant. Let me explain day by day …

• Monday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance for a flurry. More clouds due to warm air over-riding the cold air producing more clouds.
• Tuesday: Cloudy. Period of snow, then some ice then some rain. Up to 1” snow, coating of ice, and .25” rain.
• Wednesday: Cloudy to partly sunny. Mild. Showers end early. System is fast moving and has less moisture than I thought the other day.
• Thursday: Nicest day of the week! Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Maybe some early light rain showers, but then warm. Temperatures may rise to near 50. Overnight temperatures likely staying above 40!
• Friday: Cloudy. Very warm start with temperatures into the 50s, but strong front passes through and temperatures drop in the afternoon to the 30s by early evening.
• Saturday/Sunday: Lots of questions. 1) How strong is the arctic High pressure? 2) How far south does the cold front push? 3) How deep is the cold air in our area?  4) How much moisture will be flowing north and east into our area over top the cold air?  5) Will there be a storm system, although weak, that moves toward us enhancing the precipitation?   These and more all need to be answered, and right now there is no way to answer them. My gut feeling is some snow is possible, especially NE of us as it has been to date, this winter, but ice looks more threatening for us. This may change, and I pray it does. I really do not like ice. Rain or snow us much better IMHO.

 
Most of this weeks’ forecast is rather simple. The weekend will make up for it. Until then, stay warm, be careful and then enjoy the mild/warm weather.