Cold and Dry. Ending Mild and Wet

It’s been a chilly to cold stretch of weather the last week. And it will continue through Thursday before it begins to turn seasonably mild. Nothing unusual. Nothing outlandish. Nothing that isn’t unexpected. It’s typical. Our average temperatures for this time of year should rise to the lower 40s and drop to the upper 20s at night. And this week most days will see temperatures rise to the middle 30s and drop into the 20s or even lower in a few spots.

High pressure will dominate for the most part, although there will be some clouds around from time to time. By Thursday, a new storm system begins to take shape over the plains. This storm will track NE. But how it does is somewhat unknown. It may go to our NW into Canada. It may track to our south and off the coast. It won’t matter as it will be all rain anyway. And there could be a lot of rain: 1-2” worth. The cold air will retreat as warm air surges north.

The biggest question will be how warm will it get Saturday?  If the warm air comes in, we could make a run to near 60 for a short time in the morning. But historically, the cool air does not like to leave, so we could easily remain stuck in the 40s all day.  A seasonably mild day for sure.

Sunday should remain on the mild side with some sunshine around. (It should be sunnier than this past Sunday (yesterday) as the clouds from that southern storm came a bit further north than expected).  Will it stay mild?  No. I do not believe it will. Some are touting a warm stretch. Much like was said about November. We know how brief that warm stretch turned out. I think something similar will occur here. For example:

• Sat and Sun could be 16 degrees above average (overnight lows very mild).
• Mon – Fri could be 5 degrees below average.
• This gives a 7-day average of 1 above average.
• Conclusion for news: a mild week.
• But ask yourself, does a 2-day mild/warm period make a mild week when the next five are chilly/cold?  Statistics are fun, but they can be misleading.

 
White Christmas?

I do not believe we will see one this year. It has been a while since we’ve seen a true white Christmas. We had a frosty/frozen one last year. The ground did have a whitish look to it with the dusting of snow and very cold temperatures. But a true snow-covered Christmas?  It has been a while. There is a chance once we are past the 21st of this month. Around that time the cold air should be returning in a more widespread fashion. So that leaves about 4 days to get snow on the ground … possible, but unlikely as I see it right now. Things can change.