The best chance for rain comes after the big high moves to our east and the return SW flow on the back side pulls some of that soaking moisture to our south to be pulled north into our area. This looks to give us our first widespread rain in over 2 week on Tuesday. After that, dry into next weekend, but cooler again.
Thoughts as we head into October: As the fall season matures, the daylight grows shorter, and nights longer, the build up of chilly air will accelerate. So that troughs will become stronger and deeper on average. This means, that as higher than average heights in SE Canada (over Newfoundland for example), allows for moisture to pool over the southeast of Gulf of Mexico. Well deeper, stronger troughs will be able to tap into the moisture more frequently as we move into the later half of October.
Overall, I think we will have a slightly mild Oct, that is a little bit above average in rain fall. It will start dry, but I think it will end rather wet.
Here are the weather points:
- Rain: Mon - Tue, with the main focus on Tue. Could be a decent rain, but uncertain at this time. Rule of thumb is basically to under predict rain when in a dry pattern. Thus my hesitation.
- Clouds and Winds: Sunshine filtered by clouds today and Sunay, but clouds thicken by late Sunday and maintain a presence through Tue night.
- Temps: Seasonal weather and temperatures for Sat-Sun, but then warming some Mon- Tue, before turning chillier Wed-Fri.
- Tropics: Petty dull and boring. Areas of disturbed weather with weak circulations, but nothing able to develop.
Saturday: 73. Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy at times in the afternoon.
Sunday: 70. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Breezy. Cool.
Monday: 73. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance showers.
Tuesday: 77. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Good chance showers/storms.
Wednesday: 68. Decreasing clouds. Cooler.
Thursday: 66. Mostly sunny. Cool.
Friday: 70. Mostly sunny.