Christmas Flood?

Forecast for the next week. See details on this storm below. 

Today: Rain. Heavy at times. Temps climbing into the middle 50s late. 
Tonight: Rain. Thunderstorms possible. Gusty winds with storms and with front. 30. 
Christmas: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Snow showers likely. Temps falling into 20s. 
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Flurries and snow shower possible. 25. 
Sunday: Mostly sunny. 32. 
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Chance snow/rain showers. 37. 
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Snow showers possible. 28. 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 30. 

Enjoy. 

I wish there was better news in the world of weather for Christmas, but sadly, there isn't. We will have snow on the ground for Christmas Eve, but it will disappear as the warm air surges north and brings some very moist air and heavy rain with it. And we are talking about the potential for some serious rain amounts. 

What to expect: 

• Rain arrives in the morning as drizzle, spotty light rain. 
• Rain becomes steady and heavy at times in the afternoon. 
• A break may occur in the rain sometime around 6 pm. This may last for a couple of hours before more rain arrives.
• Rain and possibly thunderstorms will return with the cold front. 
• Strong gusty winds will likely occur with the front. This front will pass through after 3 am. 
• Temperatures will rise steadily throughout the day into the 50s by evening. 
• Temperatures crash behind the cold front. 
• There may be some lingering showers or rain/snow/sleet from 6 - 10 am Christmas Day. 
• Snow showers are likely in the afternoon on Christmas Day. 

Result: 

• Rainfall should range from 2-3" with higher amounts possible. 
• Combine this with snowmelt, and the streams will rise significantly and flooding is possible to even likely in some areas. 
• The NWS is forecasting minor flooding at Harpers Tavern (Swatara Creek). 
• Snow is a non issue. 
• Winds could be an issue, esp. as front is moving though. If the very strong winds mix down in any thunderstorm, then power outages could also occur. 

This storm is a big mess. And it may cause some heartache for some as flooding is a real concern. Too much rain, too much snowmelt, and all in too short of a time span. We must be thankful that we have not been very wet this fall/early winter. Our lakes, ponds, reservoirs all have room to handle a bunch of water. 

Stay safe. Have a Merry Christmas. God bless.