Yes, changes are coming.
We have had a very warm October (to date), and the mild/warm weather will continue through next weekend. It will be a tad chilly early this coming week, but it will warm up by the end of the week with 70's likely again next weekend. But changes are coming during the last week of October.
But we about another 10 days to go through until then.
Right now the weather is gloomy. Low level moisture is trapped as warmer air surges north above it. Unfortunately you and I live below the trapped moisture and that means clouds, fog on the ridges, and some brief pockets of drizzle in the early mornings.
I really did think we would see the sunshine today (and yesterday too) and even tomorrow. But I am getting skeptical for even Sunday now. When the clouds are locked in, thy take some time to dissipate. So, even for Sunday I do not think we will see a lot of sunshine but some should occur as the winds begin to come out of the SW and that should help erode the clouds away. The winds would be drier, and not off the ocean. But an inversion could keep the clouds holding on more than we might like.
But a strong cold front will push through the area on Sunday night. This will be preceded by showers and thunderstorms to our west, but most will be weakening or dying out by the time they reach us. This is due to the more stable (hint: low clouds) air in the eastern part of the state.
Behind this front is the coldest air of the season to date. Yes, much colder conditions beginning Monday and lasting through Tue before a moderating trend begins.
Frost is possible Tuesday morning with low temperatures in the 30s. The key will be the winds. How quickly does the breeze die off? I think we will have patchy frost, some areas may get a hard frost, but a freeze is not likely for most. This cold air is coming from the W and not the N. Our coldest nighttime temperatures come when the air is flowing out of the N, not the W (Great Lakes moderate air, as does down-sloping off the mountains to our west). Take precautions if you have some tender plants you want to keep alive for a while longer.
Once this front passes, high pressure takes control Monday – Saturday. A weak front may try to impact our weather around Thursday, but all we should see are clouds, if that. And a moderating trend with temperatures pushing into the low 70s again by Friday.
A more significant change in our weather pattern will be occurring the last week in October. Instead of a ridge in the east, and trough in the west, we will flip that around to a trough in the east, and ridge in the west. This should lead to much colder weather. Will this last? Will this lead to an early start to winter? Too early to tell. I will leave discussion up to the “experts.”
Today: Cloudy. Fog with some misty sprinkles possible overnight.
Sunday: Clouds early then partly sunny. Warm and humid. Light showers likely in later evening. Colder overnight.
Monday: Sun and clouds. Breezy. Chilly. Frost possible by morning.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Chilly. Frost possible early.
Wednesday: Sunny. Milder.
Thursday: Sun and clouds. Milder with a breeze.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.