As I suspected, and mentioned yesterday at lunch time, the models are shifting the track of the tropical moisture further north and east, and now they show it moving into our area for Friday and early Saturday. No shock there. Underestimating the strength of a ridge and being too fast with the cold front are common errors and biases of the models.
What does this mean practically?
It means that Friday, as warm front surges north of us, turns much more humid with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by the afternoon, through the evening and overnight, and into Sat morning. Some of the rain, esp. in the storms, could be very heavy producing localized flooding (streets, poor drainage areas, etc.). A widespread rain of 1-2” is probable, with some localized amounts that could be quite a bit higher due to the tropical downpours.
The cold front moves through Saturday midday and then much cooler and drier weather takes hold for Sunday through the middle of next week with high temperatures in the 70’s during the day. Some moderation in temperature is likely by the end of the week, but another shot of cooler weather may be coming for the first weekend in July. It is not looking hot at all for the days leading up to the 4th of July.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Pleasantly warm. Slight chance shower or storm after dark.
Friday: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy downpours. Very humid.
Saturday: Rain ending. Some clearing developing. Turning much cooler and less humid.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Seasonally cool. Breezy at times.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Seasonally cool.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonally cool.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonally cool.