Blizzard 2016": The NAM was Right!

Here at 4:30 am and already up to at least 8" or more (guess by looking out the window) and really heavy snow falling with a lot more coming yet, plus NWS saying 20-30" Well, I concur. 30" is much more likely. The 4th and final scenario is turning out to be correct. WOW. 

Please stay safe. This is looking historic. 

Note: NAM (North American Model) was roundly criticized by many forecasters this week, but for 10 straight runs it showed us getting buried that is one reason I went higher than any other local forecast I saw. But it seems that this model will be dead on. 

Final Call: 12-16”

• Strong gusty winds late Fri night and Saturday. 
• Snow starts this evening, gets heavy after midnight and lasts on and off heavy/light through Sat. 
• Snow ends Sat evening.
• Temps in the 20's throughout storm. 
• Nice and sunny on Sunday. 

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​Focus more on the 12” right now.  Below are some illustrations as to how this forecast could bust horribly. This is a very intense system. Many forecasts in our area are being conservative.  My number is on the high end of many forecasts, so that makes me a little nervous. But I have to be honest, we are on a razors edge from being thumped with heavy big time.  I cannot forecast that yet.

Please remember that forecasting is a science. But unlike other scientists, forecaster’s hypotheses are publically examined. Our lab is outdoors. The results are not measured in a lab away from the eyes of the public. So please don’t stay away from the idea “it must be nice to get paid to be wrong.”  How would you like people saying that about your career?  Think about it. [It’s only my hobby]

But also, enjoy the snow. God did make it. It is pretty. But be safe. It can be slippery. Stay home. Help your neighbor shovel out. And praise God that although we are sinners covered in guilt, through Christ, our sins are washed and we are white as snow, if we put our faith in Christ as Lord and Savior.  In Him we are forgiven, when we go to Him in repentance. So when pushing this white stuff around, remember that is how you look before God; covered in a righteousness that is from Him, by faith.

This is what matters: I am a child of God. The amount of snow is nothing by comparison. So keep perspective. Our God is with us: Immanuel.


Now that we have perspective … some scenarios to illustrate the volatility of this storm:

• Unlikely: 4” in case of snow robbing intense snow bands set up to our south all day Saturday.
• Probable: 8” in case some snow bands set up to our south for a time, but not all day Saturday.
• Probable: 20” in case intense snow bands set up over our arear for some time on Saturday.
• Possible: 24”+ in case storm stalls for 12 hours or more on Saturday near Chincoteague Island.  

 
Reasons for my Forecast:

1. Storm is projected to make it to Norfolk as expected. This puts us on the edge of the heaviest snowfall, with the heaviest to our south.  (North of Norfolk means all of central PA gets hit. South, we get missed This is from observed history, not theory)
2. Large Upper Level Lows like this one, that drive this huge storm, very often push snow further NW than forecasts have (Feb 2010, Dec 2009, Feb 2003, Jan 1996, Dec 1992 all had huge storms that did this)
3. Very intense bands of snow may set up to our south. This could “rob” us of snow. Ex: Lancaster gets bombed while we have light snow.
4. If those bands move through, and don’t stall, then we get the 12-16” I am thinking.
5. If we get one of those bands and it sits over us for a few hours, well needless to say we head toward 20” instead. 

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