Bitter Cold Moves Out then Moves Back In

First some thoughts on this weekends storm: 

1. Mid-level low, which pushed the warm air north changing our snow to ice to rain, was just a little further west than I expected. This led to a later arrival of the snow. Thus 4-6" was too high. A 2-4" forecast would have been perfect. The snowfall forecast was the least confident part. 
2. The changeover times and amounts were very good. It rained over 1" also. 
3. Flash Freeze: weather forecasters and the media over played it. Scared the tar out of people. I've lives through and believe me a a flash freeze occurs when rain is falling, and it changes to snow at least briefly and temps free fall through the 20's in the matter of an hour (by contrast it took us about 6-8 hours to fall through the 20's). Car doors freeze shut, and you have pry them open ... if you can. It does not allow time for the roads to begin to dry off. Black ice is everywhere. Running water from the rain freezes with ripples in it as it froze rapidly while still flowing. Yesterday the roads dried off for the most part, except for puddles and a few places where it runs across after heavy rain anyway.  A flash freeze did occur in the western and north central mountains, but not in the SE third of the state. Totally hyped and it served no one well except to scare people. 

And now looking ahead ... Winter has returned. It is cold. It is white. It is icy. Get used to it. Winter is here to stay for a while.

This above statement does not mean I am still doubtful on an extended period of bitter cold. Brief shots of bitter cold, like today into Tues, I see. But a 7-10 period? Still skeptical.  But winter establishing itself and giving us chances for snow, I do see. And I see several chances coming up over the next two weeks.
But we’ll take it one week at a time.
This week:

1. Today: Bitter cold. Windy too. Near zero tonight unless the winds die down then -5 to -10 is likely but I don’t think they will die down enough to allow that to happen.
2. Tues: sunny and milder. Less wind. Pleasant winter day.
3. Wed: Sleet and ice develops mid-morning, changes to a cold rain lasting through the night. I would expect at least 1” rain. If we get heavy rain of 2” or more (possible) then minor flooding concerns could develop with rapid runoff due to frozen ground. Something to keep an eye on.
4. Thu: Rain could end as snow in the morning.
5. Fri: Maybe a snow shower as more arctic air moves in.
6. Sat: Sunshine and clouds. Breezy and very cold. Not as cold as Mon, but still very cold.

​Please resist the temptation to think 35 degrees and rain is not winter weather. It is around here. There is a reason we only average 30-40 inches (valleys -ridges) of snow a year … it rains in winter. 35 and rain is cold and miserable.

However, there is a strong signal for a potential significant storm late next Sun – early Tue timeframe. And yes, we would be cold enough for snow. This would likely be a coastal system … if it does develop. The potential is there for it and for it to be significant. But time will tell …
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Until then, enjoy and stay warm.