Better Late than Never

Discussion:

So far Hurricane Matthew has stayed offshore and spared Florida.  Actually I am not surprised, as I have said that I believed it would parallel the coast. Of course, I didn’t originally see it coming so close to Florida either, so you win some, you lose some.

• Note: The hysteria was over the top. The most dangerous portion of a hurricane is the storm surge from the ocean. This is at its worst when a storm moves inland perpendicular to the coast. Matthew as coming in essentially parallel to the coast. So the storm surge was not going to anything like it could have been. Also, with it being predicted to be near the shore, up to half of the fiercest winds would be over the water. So even that was not as bad as it could have been.
• Yes, it was a serious storm. Yes, it posed a huge risk if it rapidly intensified. Yes, people should heed evacuation orders when given. But “devastating effects”?  Haiti only was devastated in a small portion of the nation. And we all know how their buildings are constructed. So we faced damage. But not devastation.
• Now if the storm stays as strong, and moves inland over SC or NC, then you have a storm surge, and then a lot more damage. But right now, do not be surprised if it simply parallels the coasts. In fact, the NHC is now predicting just that.

What does this have to do with us?

Well, a track over the ocean is a faster track and perhaps a quicker turn to the north. This could lead to more moisture flowing along and ahead of the cold front. I am uncomfortable with the models predicting very little rain for our area. I think it’s a mistake, yet I can see how we get very little. Basic logic says, we get a decent rain. Now 2” is likely overdone, so I will be dropping the amount to more like .5” to maybe 1”.  And the rain is coming Saturday, not Sat night into Sunday.

So my timing was slow, and I was overdone on the amount, but I cannot go lower because of the basic observations this morning.

1. Hurricane staying offshore may point to an earlier turn north giving more moisture.
2. Cold front our west making very little to no progress out west, many point to a slower passage, giving more time for moisture to be pulled north from Matthew.

These two points are not set in stone. They are possibilities. It would not take much for a big surge of moisture to come north into our area. The difference from a little to a lot is a matter of about 8 hours in timing. Right now, I don’t think there is enough, but with hurricanes, you never know.

​Beyond this cold front, nice weather into most of next week. A weak front may pass through around Thu, but not a big deal. Lots of nice Oct weather coming: mild afternoons, and chilly mornings.