So far Hurricane Matthew has stayed offshore and spared Florida. Actually I am not surprised, as I have said that I believed it would parallel the coast. Of course, I didn’t originally see it coming so close to Florida either, so you win some, you lose some.
Well, a track over the ocean is a faster track and perhaps a quicker turn to the north. This could lead to more moisture flowing along and ahead of the cold front. I am uncomfortable with the models predicting very little rain for our area. I think it’s a mistake, yet I can see how we get very little. Basic logic says, we get a decent rain. Now 2” is likely overdone, so I will be dropping the amount to more like .5” to maybe 1”. And the rain is coming Saturday, not Sat night into Sunday.
So my timing was slow, and I was overdone on the amount, but I cannot go lower because of the basic observations this morning.
These two points are not set in stone. They are possibilities. It would not take much for a big surge of moisture to come north into our area. The difference from a little to a lot is a matter of about 8 hours in timing. Right now, I don’t think there is enough, but with hurricanes, you never know.
Beyond this cold front, nice weather into most of next week. A weak front may pass through around Thu, but not a big deal. Lots of nice Oct weather coming: mild afternoons, and chilly mornings.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.