Recall these words from last Monday: “Now this cold front on Thu afternoon/evening is what appears to be the beginning of a slow shift in the weather pattern. It will not happen overnight, but the process of transitioning from a dominate ridge to a dominate trough is beginning. The change will occur in New England first, then spread west from there.”
It is happening and the forecast looking ahead supports that. A stronger trough will impact us during the week, and then next weekend. Each time a more west-ward push occurs. It is a slow process, but it is happening. Instead of the trough axis being northeast of New England (like this past weekend) it appears to be centered over the Northeast next weekend, and even further west the week after that. So, the upper level pattern is evolving in a way so much cooler to colder weather will be arriving, but one thing sticks out that is missing so far: the lack of storminess.
Now, being as warm as we have been for September, and October as a nation certainly limits the potential for widespread rainstorms. But looking to the midpoint of the month, I still see very little storminess and widespread precipitation. There could be some potential by the middle of next week, but very little until then.
What my mind is wondering is this: Could a lack of storminess point to a milder and drier winter? Now, it is early, so perhaps the storminess develops as the upper levels change. And there are hints this may begin to occur, but the lack of big storms heading into the middle of the month is interesting to say the least.
Anyhow, getting back to this coming week: Sunny Monday and Tuesday with seasonally mild temps for the most part. Cold front Wed with some showers. Sunny Thursday before a strong cold front Friday passes through on Friday, with a shower possible. It looks cold next weekend, esp. Saturday, with a chance for flurries and a snow shower. Sunny and milder on Sunday.