Beautiful and Warm. Winter Returns the Weekend.

A beautiful day is in store today with sunshine and warm temperatures. A great mid-winter day.  Another nice day tomorrow, although it will be getting colder. Wed/Thu will not be so nice. Damp and raw. Then a warm start to Fri with temperatures into the 50s to start the day, but then falling as winter returns.

(Please note this is not a 5 day warm spell. We will have 2 warm days (Mon/Tue), 1 seasonal day (Wed), 1 mild-sort-of day (Thu), a 12 hour warm up (early Fri), then winter returns. This is not a 5 day warm spell. Wed/Thu will not feel warm (unless you're from Barrow Alaska). This is why I dislike 5 day temperature anomaly maps. Two and a half warm days make the other 2 and a half days look warm when the are not.) 

There a few adjustments and challenges to the forecast:

1. Adjustment: I wondered is the mini surface ridge would keep our atmosphere more stable and temperatures a little lower than forecast for today. Yesterday was the key. Would Sunday be warmer or cooler than expected. It was a little warmer. So, the min ridge is not keeping us cooler. So, I had to increase the temperatures for today.
2. Adjustment: I increased the temperatures on Tue due to the timing of the cold air arrival. Since it’s a little slower, we have time to rise to 50 or above for a shot time.
3. Challenge: How quickly does the light rain arrive on Wed?  The quicker it is the better the chance for some freezing rain during the afternoon/evening.
4. Challenge: How quickly does the warm air move in on Thursday? Typically, the cool air holds on longer than the computer models indicate. Sometimes much longer. They do not handle cold air damming situations all that well. I suspect they are too fast again. But the warm air will win out just after midnight Fri.

 
After a warm Fri morning, winter returns. Our first chance for snow (moderate size) would be Sun night into Mon morning. With an active storm track coast to coast, and with plenty of cold air available, chances for snow, snow/ice, and/or snow/ice/rain will be repeated. 
But before then we have a beautiful day to enjoy (even if only for an hour or so after school/work, just get out and enjoy it). 

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