August 26th, 2017

Discussion:

The big weather story this weekend is Hurricane Harvey. This major hurricane will devastate the coastal areas of Texas with storm surge flooding, strong damaging winds of over 120 mph, and incredible rains of over 20” in many areas in SE coastal Texas. The storm will move very slowly through Wednesday … but what then?  Where will it go?

Some options:

1. A front will approach our area by the end of the week and it pulls Harvey northward into our area. (Unlikely)
2. Same front, but it only draws Harvey northward to somewhere near or around Arkansas. Some of the moisture from Harvey enhances the rain along the front on Friday. But the storm itself misses the front and stalls.  Another front will approach our area on Sunday. This then absorbs the rest of Harvey and brings a widespread rain to our area on Sunday.  (unlikely)
3. First front simply misses Harvey, and second is slower and some moisture from Harvey is pulled north enhancing the rain Labor Day/Tue. (possible)
4. Harvey simply wanders and dies in south Texas and has no impact on us. (possible)

Scenario 3 and 4 seem the most likely, however this is highly uncertain. Why?  The steering flow in the atmosphere is almost non-existent in south Texas, thus the stalling of the storm. Little pushes here, and nudges there can make a large difference in how it may eventually be impacted by the steering currents that typically move weather systems along generally from W to E.  Until that happens … we simply do not know …

We do know that we have something else to keep our eyes on: the east coast. A storm will be developing along the SC/GA/FL coast early next week. This storm looks to stay just off shore and head north to outer banks of NC. The combined influence of the winds around this storm, around the area of high pressure just off the ME coast, and the upper level low in the Midwest will lead to a squeeze play that may bring lots of clouds and possibly some rain into our area on Tue.  Whether it rains a little or not, a chilly day is in store with breezy winds coming out of the E/NE and little sunshine to warm it up. Temperatures will struggle to reach 70. 

Now it is possible that the upper level low will pull this storm a little further north giving us a heavier rain, but I doubt that will happen. But things can change.

The storm will likely escape out to sea and the upper level low will weaken and move east with scattered clouds for Wed.  A strong cold front will then pass through late Thu night or early Fri, giving a chance for a few showers, but there does not appear to be a lot of moisture available for this front. A second front will impact us Labor Day Weekend with perhaps some remnants of Harvey involved.

Dailies:

Saturday: Sun and clouds. Beautiful.   
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Beautiful. A little warmer.    
Monday: Mostly sunny. A tad cooler. Light breeze.    
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Chilly breeze. Chance for some light showers.        
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Breeze out of the NE.    
Thursday: Sun and clouds. Chance for showers overnight.  
Friday: Sun and clouds. Refreshingly cool with a breeze. Chance for showers.