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Faithful Forecast

A Forecast for Southern Schuylkill and Northern Lebanon County  

Midweek Update - Updated Thu Morning 9 am

8/19/2015

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The system is moving a little faster than I thought yesterday. So the rain/storms will come in earlier. This does 2 things: 
  1. Temps much lower. Maybe 80 but that will be this morning if it does. 
  2. Rain ends by 9 pm tonight. Giving us a less humid, pleasant day on Friday.  

So a faster movement, means a faster ending. It will not be as hot today, but still very humid. Do expect some impressive heavy downpours. No flooding concerns except for usual spots in heavy downpours. Overall this will be a beneficial rain as it has been dry.  
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Tropical Storm Danny is organizing in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It will be in the Caribbean by the middle of next week. Where will he go from there?   Will he impact us in any way? Good questions, that cannot be answered just yet.   

So far the weeks forecast is working out pretty well. Low 90s the last two days (in the valleys, tad cooler in cooler locations like north facing ridges), and increasingly humid. Today, not much change as the air mass has not changed. So things are still going to be on the hot and very humid side. 

The only changes are minor. Lower temps a couple degrees today mainly due to a SE wind which does not provide any down slope warming off the Appalachian Mountains.  I will lower temps a degree for Thu due to the amount of clouds, but would not be surprised to see temps well above the computer guidance which is only near 80 max. 

Heavy rain still likely late Thu afternoon until about midnight. Expect 1" widespread rain with up to 2" possible. The rain will come down very heavily causing street flooding and other flood prone low spots to fill up quickly.  Our next rain will not be until next Tue, but that looks weak. 

Points for the Forecast: 
  1. Heat will break late Thu/Thu night. Friday much less humid and comfortable. 
  2. Heat begins to build on Sat and peak into the uppers 80s for Monday. 
  3. Cold front, possibly a dry front, passes Mon night. Cooler for Tue and Wed. 
  4. Warm up begins next Thu (27th) and possible shot of hear for 3 or 4 days with temps around 90. Similar to what we went through this past Sat - Tue. 

Here is the forecast: 

Wednesday: 88. Partly to mostly sunny. Hot, humid. Chance showers/storms               
Thursday: 86. At least partly sunny. Humid. Showers/storms becoming likely in the afternoon/overnight. Heavy rain likely. 

Friday: 82. Clearing skies. Less humid.         

Saturday: 83. Mostly sunny. Comfortable.   

Sunday: 85. Mostly sunny. Warm. More humid.            

Monday: 87. Mostly sunny. Warm. Shower/storm possible late or overnight.           

Tuesday: 79. Sun and clouds. Cooler. Pleasant. 

Wed-Sun will feature a building ridge, and heat. Would not be surprised to see 90 degrees again. by the last weekend in August. Plus likely hurricane Danny in the Caribbean.   

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    Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.

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