Aug 21

Hurricane Henri. Where is he going?  Will moisture be syphoned off of him and into our area as I wondered about last update?  Sadly that answer is very debated at this time. 

First, Henri is strengthening some, but not a lot. There is a N-NW pull on the cloud structure from Henri. This shows the pull of the western trough as it steers Henri north, then NNW then captures him. But where does that capture take place? Some have it in New York, some in New England, some in NE PA. Some forecasters do not even have  capture at all. Lots of debate. Lots of arguing over the models. 

This is when you skip models. Look at what is is happening right now. Below is a picture of the radar at 6:30 pm. It shows am arm of showers/storms moving NW in NJ into PA. Then I ask, what models show this?  Sadly many do not. Those that don't I throw out. If they cannot get current conditions right, how will they get the forecast right?  

So I go with those that have this finger of moisture coming NW. All but one brings that finger into our area. So I would expect showers to be developing overnight. And persist on and off Sunday. The heaviest may be late tonight, and then late Sunday. 

I would expect from .25" to 1" rain, more to the east, and less to the west. Locally more possible. After Henri, we dry out, but stay warm and humid. 

Details: 

Sunday: Showers likely. Some heavier rain possible, esp. east. 76. 
Monday: Partly sunny. Chance shower or storm. 82. 
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. 88. 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 89. 
Thursday: Mostly sunny. 89. 
Friday: Mostly sunny. Chance shower/storm. 89. 
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Chance for showers. 81. 

Enjoy.