April 18th, 2017

Discussion:

As we enter this post-Easter week, the weather looks rather pleasant and somewhat wet. But how wet?  And that in a nut shell is the question for the week.  How much rain will there be later this week and this weekend? 

To start, the weather is great today, and through tonight. More clouds and cooler weather for Wed as a warm front advances northeastward.  Thu could be quite mild if we get enough sunshine as warm front lifts north of us and keeps the steadier rains in NY and New England. There could be a few showers and even a thunderstorm on Thu, but I am increasingly skeptical of us getting very much. A frontal boundary will pass through Fri morning, but Fri will be quite mild with a dry gusty afternoon wind.

Then does another system in the southern plains states moves due east and off the east coast of does it head northeast giving us a soaking rain Sun into Mon?  Right now, I suspect the latter over the former. Although it will be cooler.

There is one observation I’ve seen this month and its one that is like last winter: Don’t underestimate the strength and warming of the upper ridge. This may come in to play Thu, Fri and then again Sun and Mon therefore making my forecast a little different, and hopefully correct, than some others you might see/hear (hint: warmer Thu/Fri and wetter Sun/Mon).

The dailies:

• Wednesday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Cooler.    
• Thursday: Ridge builds in giving us sunshine. It will be warm. More humid. Chance shower or storm late/overnight.  
• Friday: Sunshine. Breezy. Mild. Cooler overnight.     
• Saturday: Sunshine. Seasonal.
• Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Chance for afternoon showers and steadier rain overnight as ridge does not allow for suppression of upper low and keeps low moving northeast, not straight east.  
• Monday: Mostly cloudy. Chance for morning rain.
• Tuesday: Sunshine. Seasonal.  

Enjoy!