April 2nd, 2016

Humble Pie. That is what yesterday was. I mean I sent a brief update dealing with Sat night’s weather, but thought the forecast was in great shape for yesterday: Mid-morning it was mostly cloudy. Some showers were around, and temps were in the 60's. Some breaks were in the clouds to our SW but not that big. Forecast looked good. Well, it was waaaay oooffff. 

I don’t think too many saw the showers drying up completely, skies clearing and temps surging toward 80 degrees. Like I said, humble pie.  Forecasting can be tough. Even from a few hours out. But time to move on to new challenges.

Pattern will present us with a chilly to cold week ahead. Lots of clouds through Mon (some sun on Sunday but not a ton), then sunny Tue/Wed and then lots of clouds Thu/Fri/Sat. Potent yet very compact low moving though tonight, another low approaching Mon bringing some rain, then very cold high pressure gives us sunshine, followed by what looks to be a very wet and stormy few days Thu-Sat.

I mentioned earlier about the early season warmth and tender vegetation/buds coming out too early. Well this coming cold has three nights of potential danger for growers.

1. Mon night: arctic air will be pouring south. Very cold temps in the 20's overnight, but winds will stay up. This may keep temps in the upper 20's but with air moving, no freezing can occur.
2. Tue Night: Big high sits over us. Winds go calm. This is the night to be concerned. The cold air will be moving away so how cold will it go?  Probably mid-20's in valleys.
3. Sat Night: Kind of far off, but next Sat could be pretty cold too. At this time, the high looks to be too far south so the winds stay up keeping us from getting too cold.

It is possible that we get through this coming week without a bad freeze. I have seen some fruit trees blossoming. A freeze is deadly to those blossoms. Early warmth feels great. But it can have a bad side. If we get through this week, I think we are good to go. That does not mean a frost threat, just the killing freeze threat should be done.

Hint: April’s start will be chilly, but I doubt it lasts. Hasn’t all winter and early spring, so I bet it ends warm, possible very warm.
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Cold shot: light showers Sat morning and overnight. Flurry possible into Sun morning. Snow to our north. Highs on Sun in the 30’s with gusty winds.
2. Bust Potential: Mon. Strengthening low will move E-SE across PA bringing some rain, even snow up N and NW of us, not a lot though. But a track a little further north, and warm air surges back in and we rise into the low 60’s again. I don’t see that at this time, but you how Fri turned out …
3. Cold Tue/Tue Night: Highs in low 40’s Tue followed by mid-20’s overnight into Wed morning.
4. Milder: Warming Wed, Thu and into early Fri.
5. Wet: Thu and Fri look wet, possible very wet as coastal low takes shape. This is the strongest signal for heavy rain since the end of February soaker. [If coastal is off shore, just cloudy, raw. But if storm is strong, near coast lots of rain, and even snow further north. No snow here. ]
6. Cold: More cold air pouring south Fri and Sat. This will threaten the deeper south, south of Tennessee with frost/freeze.

 
Details:

Saturday: 55.  Mostly cloudy. Light shower early. Showers overnight. Flurries possible late. Turning colder and windy late.  

Sunday: 40. Sun and clouds. Windy to start. Cold.     

Monday: 50. Cloudy. A period of rain developing.                

Tuesday: 40. Sunshine. Cold. Overnight freeze quite likely.  

Wednesday: 54. Sunny. Milder.  South wind picking up.            

Thursday: 58. Mostly cloudy. Showers.         

Friday: 44. Cloudy. Colder. Chance for rain.