An Isle of Wet in an Ocean of Dryness?

First of all, sorry for the lack of updates over the last week. I was away and did not have time nor proper access to update the forecast. But it went basically as I thought, but not exactly. The biggest blip was Friday: Rain?  That was late Thu and Thu night. Since it was less organized than expected, Sat’s system had more moisture to work with and boy did it rain. Again, not a total bust on the forecast, as I had it warm with chance for rain, so idea was right, just was not dead on either.

One thing is certain though: our droughty dry spell is over … for now. And again, the best way to break these things is to get the tropics involved. Now we did not get a tropical storm, but we did get a tropical disturbance and its moisture. From last week:

“At the same time, some disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico will be impacting LA, MS, AL and extreme east TX coastlines. This moisture will move north then northeast, as it gets picked up by our trough. This could then help generate a heavy soaking rain to our region on Friday. I suspect that the bulk of it will be SE of a Clearfield to Binghamton line. It could produce over 1” of rain and locally up to 3” as deep moisture moves in. This is not exactly a tropical storm, but there will be a tropical connection here, so the potential is pretty good. If you want to end a “droughty dry spell”, this is the way to do it.”

The lack of stronger organization on Thu night/Fri led to a faster system, and less widespread rain, but deep moisture from the tropics lingered. It is just now being pushed away.

But I ask?  Will the wetness last?  I doubt it. Thus the title of this post. I do believe we will begin to dry out again. But the rain we got cannot be denied. It was was great blessing in many ways. 

Why am I skeptical of a wetter pattern?  The over-all basic pattern of trough in the NE, ridge in the west/west-central US has not changed all summer. Why would it suddenly bring the opposite of what it has brought?  That is until season changes come about, but we are still in the middle of summer. Now I do believe changes will occur as we progress through August and move into September. This is a seasonal shift as temps on land cool, and oceans continue to warm. So by September and October the western Atlantic ridge ought to be strong and a major influencer in our weather giving us a very warm Sept and into Oct. But until then, same ole, same ole.  

This means we are not likely to stay wet. However, this beneficial rainy period was a blessing for many in the state, but not for all. As you can see by the map below, the precipitation over the last 2 weeks is very low over North Central PA and Western NY. These areas really need rain. But I just don’t see much coming over the next week.

Our area and points east are in pretty good shape right now, for that we can be thankful.  

 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Pleasant Days: Sunshine today and Thu with a little lower humidity, and pleasantly warm temps.
2. More Humid: Increasing heat and humidity Fri and Sat.
3. Chance Thunderstorms: Best chance is Sat. Storms will be scattered. Not all will get a storm.
4. Pleasant Days: Sun – Tue of next week. Low humidity under sunny skies.

 
Details:

Wednesday: 82. Partly sunny. Less humid.   

Thursday: 84. Mostly sunny. Less humid.          

Friday: 87. Partly to mostly sunny. Very warm. More humid. Chance of a shower. 

Saturday: 87. Sun and clouds. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm.    

Sunday: 82. Sun and clouds. Lower humidity. Nice breeze.   

Monday: 80. Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Low humidity.

Tuesday: 84. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.