Sorry for the delay in posting. I was waiting to see what the current conditions were this morning (Tue) before issuing a forecast that included our first winter storm of the season. This will also be the first snowfall for many. Before getting to details here are a few pointers:
1) HYPE ... HYPE ... HYPE. Due to Wed being the busiest travel day of the year, the hype went into overdrive starting Sun. That is another reason for my silence. Why add to the speculative noise?
2) "Warm Ground. So it will have a hard time sticking." Don't pay too much attention to that one. If it snows hard, it will stick. Way too much stock put into that one. In April 2000, at my home in NY, it snow 12" the day after it was sunny and 75! Extreme case yes, but warm ground did nothing to stop the snow from accumulating even on the roads.
3) "Too Warm Monday for Accumulating Snow Wed": Another ridiculous comment I've read from meteorologists. Monday's air mass which was beautifully warm, has nothing to do with Tue or Wed air mass. Why? A cold front went though our area Monday night! That means Monday's air is gone!
I struggle to understand why some of these "rules" are touted, yet are proved wrong nearly every winter. But I still hear them. It is sad. Truly sad. Ok. Enough of that. Now the forecast.
Factors that I considered:
1) The image above is a predicted radar depiction at 1 pm Wed. If this is correct, it will be snowing quite heavily at this time. This radar shows a well developed system with thunderstorms just off the coast. This is a sign of strong lifting and dynamics. This is key to heavy snow on the NW side of a storm.
2) This next image shows the total predicted amount of liquid precipitation. Since it will be snow, if it were melted we would have close to 1".
3) Also looking at this image, one just needs to follow the red colors to see the track of this storm. It starts along the GA/SC coast and moves up along, but just off shore to the east of Cape Cod. This is a track that is favorable for heavy snow in our area.
4) The storms origins really begin in the Gulf of Mexico as you can see by the image above. This will mean it will have lots of moisture to work with. Thus I would not go light on the precipitation.
5) Temperatures Tue and Tue night. This is the hardest part of the forecast. The cold air is coming in, albeit slowly. It is warmer this morning than was forecast. However, there will be lots of clouds around today it seems, so the sun will be filtered for much of the day. This will keep us from warming much. But does the air get cool enough? I think it will, and the strong dynamics take over, But this is the biggest question mark in the whole set up.
Today: Mostly cloudy. Sunshine filtered through it at times. Seasonal with temps around 50. Tonight will be cloudy with light rain/snow beginning before sunrise but quickly changing over to wet snow by sunrise.
Wed: Snow will fall heavily from 8 am - 4 pm. It may not be heavy all the time but that is the window for the heaviest snow. Travel will be difficult at best. Temps fall to 30-32 degrees and hold steady.
Wed Night: Snow ending early in the evening by 7 pm at the latest. Total snow 6-8" in valleys, and 9-11" on the ridges (esp. NE of Tremont to High Ridge).
Thanksgiving Day: Sun and clouds. Breezy at times. Chilly with temps in the mid 30s and lows in the lower 20s at night.
Friday: Cold with sunshine. High near 30. Low near 20.
Sat - Sunday: Warming up. Temps near 42 Sat and 50 Sunday.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.