It is time for a Thaw … the February version. I suppose we might have to wonder “Thaw? What are we thawing out from?” Well, locally not much. But not too far to our north there is some thick ice on ponds and lakes. Enough to ice fish. Also, many areas near the NY state border through New England have a lot of snow. My parents near Albany have 18”. So, a thaw is real for these folks. But for us … it’s January all over.
From January 18-27, averaged 12 degrees above average. A similar stretch will occur starting Feb 18 (Sat) and lasting for at least 7 days. The timing is rather amazing, and will result in February being the warmest month of the winter, relative to average.
Yet, again I hear that winter is over and that spring is coming. No more winter storms. And in an answer to my question, “What is the difference between winter snow and spring snow?” I read of “rogue storms” bringing cold against climatology” for March and April. What a chuckle … rogue storms?
Average snowfall for March in Philadelphia is 3”. In Washington D.C it is 1.5” and in NYC is it 3.5”. These are all just a little lower than December, and much higher than November. Must be rogue storms in Dec and Nov that bring about an average for snow over the years too! Bah. This is all so ridiculous. Yes, my winter outlook is toast. I admitted that a while ago. The pattern has been the same all winter. Up and down, with a pull back of cold mid to late month and then the cold returns in some form with chances for snow. It did it in December, January and now February. It looks to happen in March also. This is not something new. It is a wash, rinse, repeat cycle.
Once to the middle or later portion of March, things are more likely to chance as the atmosphere responds more powerfully to the increasing sun angle and rapidly warming temperatures. Until then enjoy the low cost of heating the house, and the pleasant days.
My previous forecast is still good, but I can no longer underestimate the strength of the warm air so some numbers are going up. Not that anyone will complain J
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.