A Thaw ... the February Version

Discussion:

It is time for a Thaw … the February version. I suppose we might have to wonder “Thaw?  What are we thawing out from?” Well, locally not much. But not too far to our north there is some thick ice on ponds and lakes. Enough to ice fish. Also, many areas near the NY state border through New England have a lot of snow. My parents near Albany have 18”. So, a thaw is real for these folks. But for us … it’s January all over.
From January 18-27, averaged 12 degrees above average. A similar stretch will occur starting Feb 18 (Sat) and lasting for at least 7 days. The timing is rather amazing, and will result in February being the warmest month of the winter, relative to average. 

Yet, again I hear that winter is over and that spring is coming. No more winter storms. And in an answer to my question, “What is the difference between winter snow and spring snow?” I read of “rogue storms” bringing cold against climatology” for March and April. What a chuckle … rogue storms? 

Average snowfall for March in Philadelphia is 3”. In Washington D.C it is 1.5” and in NYC is it 3.5”.  These are all just a little lower than December, and much higher than November. Must be rogue storms in Dec and Nov that bring about an average for snow over the years too!  Bah. This is all so ridiculous. Yes, my winter outlook is toast. I admitted that a while ago. The pattern has been the same all winter. Up and down, with a pull back of cold mid to late month and then the cold returns in some form with chances for snow. It did it in December, January and now February. It looks to happen in March also.  This is not something new. It is a wash, rinse, repeat cycle.

Once to the middle or later portion of March, things are more likely to chance as the atmosphere responds more powerfully to the increasing sun angle and rapidly warming temperatures. Until then enjoy the low cost of heating the house, and the pleasant days.

My previous forecast is still good, but I can no longer underestimate the strength of the warm air so some numbers are going up. Not that anyone will complain J  

• Thursday: Sun and clouds. Windy at times. Cooler. Flurries.
• Friday: Less windy. Cool but nice under sunshine.  
• Saturday/Sunday: Much warmer. Lots of sunshine, esp. Sunday. Temperatures into the 50s to near 60.
• Monday/Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Slight cooling as big cool high sits off to our north.
• Wednesday: Possible approach of wet rainstorm. Some uncertainty here as to how significant due to wild amplification of the pattern globally. Models having hard time and will have a hard time with this. It would seem reasonable for at least some rain. Potential is there for some heavy rain, but that may hold off until the weekend. More on this as we get closer.  

Enjoy.