Mild and damp. We are stuck in the muck. Drizzle and dark cloudy conditions hung on yesterday for a bit longer than expected. It was mild, and just a peek or two of sunshine and it would have been into the mid 60’s.
Today, will also remain cloudy with a bit of drizzle. Some real showers are likely as well. It will turn much cooler later today and overnight. Temperatures will fall to near 40 or lower by morning.
The cold front will then stall to our south as a wave of low pressure develops along it and moves E-NE toward the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will bring more wet weather into our area late Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the previous forecast stated. Most of the rain will be light, but there could be some pockets of moderate rain. Do not expect a lot of rain, .25” for most is about it. But wet is wet.
After this system a new cold front will approach from the NW, and behind that front is the coldest air of the season. We will receive a glancing blow, but will turn quite chilly. A season ending freeze is likely Friday and Saturday night. The growing season has essentially ended, but there are some plants that are too stubborn to stop growing (like the lawn). This will take care of that as temperatures drop through the 20's.
We will begin to moderate by Sunday, and part of that warming will come with a chilly rain for later Sunday/Sunday night into the following Monday. Some snow is likely with this system for northern NY and northern New England, but not here.
Sunday is a potentially tricky day. The colder air could get locked in east of the mountains. And as warmer air begins to move NE, it could glide over the top of the cold and give us a grey but very chilly day. Timing of the Sunday system will be key. Since the flow across the nation is quick/progressive right now, I would favor faster, not slower. This leads to the challenge. A flow of warmer air will begin later Saturday night and Sunday. If the clouds thicken up quickly, we will be very chilly and cloudy on Sunday. If the clouds hold off and we get some sunshine early Sunday, then we will be milder. The difference? 10-15 degrees. Tough call right now. I will be taking a middle of the road idea and fine tune it as the week progresses.
The pattern is one that allows cool air to visit, but then warmer air returns close behind it. Sometimes the colder air will be stronger (like this Friday/Saturday) and the warm air return weak (like Thursday), but there will be times when its reversed (like this past Saturday/Sunday/Today). A transitory pattern. Nothing locks in for any length of time. And I do not see it changing soon either.
Monday: Cloudy. Showers likely. Mild.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Light rain likely developing late and continuing overnight.
Wednesday: Clearing. Partly sunny. Chilly. Breezy.
Thursday: Sun and clouds. Pleasant early November weather.
Friday: Partly sunny. Blustery and cold.
Saturday: Sunny. Cold.
Sunday. Increasing clouds. Milder.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.