A One Two Punch

We have a one-two punch coming. The first is more of a gentle tap, the second is more of a punch. Let’s take them one at a time.

Sun Night – Monday Morning:

1. On and off light snow develops after 7 pm Sunday evening and ends by 8 am Monday. This will accumulate 1-2”.  
2. Some very light snow/flurries may continue off and on for parts of Monday. But it won’t amount much of anything.

Monday Evening – Tuesday Evening:

1. Snow develops after 5 pm Monday evening. It may be heavy at times. I expect about 3-5” by 7 am Monday.
2. Snow changes to sleet by 7 am Monday. The sleet may continue for several hours accumulating up to 1” of the little ice balls. Traveling will become terrible if this does happen.
3. Sleet should then change to freezing rain by mid-afternoon at the latest, and then to all rain before ending in the late evening.

Again, this is what I see as of late Sat afternoon.

It really is a straight forward forecast. We’ve this many times. You start with what happens on average (amounts of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain) with a storm lifting into the Great Lakes, and cold air stuck on the east side of the mountains. Then you take note of what is above or below average (moisture source, strength of High and low pressure, jet flow) and then adjust up or down from the averages. Can’t forecast what you want. Must forecast what looks to be coming. Sorry, but this is not going to be a classic heavy snowstorm. But it is a winter storm.

The final call for the Bigger Storm will be given by Noon on Monday.

Until then, enjoy.