I've written it before: Weather hints at what is to come in the future.
Yesterday was a real clue to Jose. The showers were expected to be in our area along with lots of clouds. Well, we had a lot more sunshine and no real showers (sprinkles here and there do not count). The showers hung around NW PA and NY, but not SE PA. This shows the track of the upper low was further NW because the ridging was underestimated. So, could a stronger ridge push Jose further west and impact us more than present thinking?
Remember Irma was at first expected to go east of Florida, then central Florida, then along the west coast. For us, Jose was to go out to sea, now its closer to the coast, but could it hug the coast or go inland a little? Giving us a soaking rain and breezy to windy conditions here and heavy rain with tropical storm to hurricane force wind gusts along the coast? We will know more by tomorrow.
Please take note that I included a chance for showers Mon and Tue due to Jose being close. I stand with that forecast, but may have to move it back 12 hours or so.
Enjoy today. Lots of sun. Maybe a shower, but I doubt it. Warm autumn weather.
Cannot believe it was a week ago that I updated the forecast. Sorry about that. Had some things that had to be taken care (unexpected) including me eating something that was not good: stomach cramps. Miserable. But I think that is passing … finally.
The weather has been, for us, rather benign. Sunny, cool mornings and warm afternoons. Until today that is.
The remnants or shadow of Irma is what brought today’s showery/drizzly weather. This will continue overnight. And as the upper level “shadow” of Irma journeys into our area it will bring more showers, some that could be heavy. This “shadow” will continue to weaken, and linger over our area through the weekend. This will give us a chance for a shower Fri, Sat, and Sun.
It will be dry most of the time, so no rain outs or deluges. In fact, this might be the driest week we’ve had since mid-June.
The intrigue of the forecast is what will Hurricane/Tropical storm Jose do? He is wandering around in a looping path in the west central Atlantic Ocean. He is not threat to any land at this time, however, by early next week Jose could be very close to the NE coast. From there, could it be pushed out to sea? Could it be trapped and sit and spin, slowly dying? Or could it be trapped and pulled west into the Northern Mid-Atlantic as a dying system?
We will know more later this week. But until then I feel Jose will come very close to the coast (as a weak system though) and bring some extra clouds and a NE wind flow which would cool us off a little bit. However, if Jose stay far enough east of us we will have lots of sunshine and warm temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. More will be known by Friday morning.
Until then enjoy the milder weather, for it is here to stay for a while. In fact, we should make a run toward 80 for Sat and Sun. And no real “cool” air is coming as the pattern shifts to a ridge in the east and trough in the west. At least for now.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid.
Friday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance for a shower.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Slight chance for a shower. Warm.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
Monday: Partly sunny. Chance for showers.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Chance for showers.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Milder.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.