A Little Bit of Everything
Friday Evening Weekend Outlook:
1 Still nice Saturday with a chance of a shower as a weakening line of showers moves through late morning to early afternoon. Should not be a big deal at all. Some of us will stay dry all day. Mild yet. Some sunshine poking through especially early and late. Highs uppers 60s to 70. Colder late.
2. Saturday night much colder. You will feel the difference. Breezy, clouds thickening up with some light rain possible very late at night.
3. Sunday will be a damp, cold day. Rain off and on. Temperatures within a few degrees of 50.
4. Columbus Day. If you have it off enjoy it. Lots of sunshine, but quite cool. Temps in the mid to upper 50s at best. Cold night Monday night with a likelihood of frost.
5. Looking into next week. A cool week ahead. Some showers midweek, before more cold air for the end of the week. Another frost/freeze for Thu night and/or Friday night. It will try to warm up over next weekend, but that may mean rain. However, after that ... milder weather, maybe Indian summer???
Thanks for reading.
Thursday morning update:
1. Today: It's so disappointing to not only miss a forecst, but it could be also be so very beautiful and warm. Not much we can do about it. The rain will end this morning, and the clouds will thin and clear by late afternoon. Temps mild in the mid 70s.
2. Will it rain Friday? No. It will be spectacular. Warm, a nice breeze. Plenty of sunshine too. Temps in the upper 70s. Enjoy it.
3. Rest of the forecast looks good ...
Wed morning update:
1. Today: Those low gray stratus clouds will hang tough. The sun should break out some this afternoon. But with a lowering sun angle the clouds will hang tough. Temps are tough to forecast. Kind of like yesterday. the bust potential is very high as full sun would give low 80s and no sun would give mid 60s. I have to go with a little sun, with temps rising slowly into the low 70s.
2. Thu/Fri: Still great. Small chance of some showers Thu. Most of the showers will be east of our area. Warm temps in the mid and upper 70s both days.
3. Sat: Clouds, light shower possible early then just cloudy. Mild, but not as warm. Rain arriving later Sat night. Temps in the 60s to near 70.
4. Sun: Cold and miserable. Rain. Temps in the low 50s early and not rising, maybe falling a few degrees. Rain ending mid to late afternoon. (It could be worse: wet snow may be seen in some mountains to our west)
5. Columbus Day: Sunshine and some puffy clouds! Pretty chilly. Temps in the upper 50s. If the winds go calm, and skies stay clear expect a growing season ending freeze for many areas monday night into Tue morning.
That is all for this morning’s update.
The original forcast issued on Sunday:
1. Pleasant to start
2. Warm, humid and unsettled midweek
3. Warm conditions into Sat
4. Growing season ending cold possible for Columbus Day (8th into the 9th)
5. Rain maker along sharp cold front for Saturday-Sunday? This is the challenge. The GFS (American model) is likely pushing the cold into our area too fast, but even it is showing the possibility of something stirring up some rain and maybe some thunder on the south side of the weak low pressure. I have my doubts that the main surge of cold air will come through on Friday as the GFS is trying to indicate. The GFS may be bundling too much energy, making it too progressive.
Monday: A Beauty. Lots of sunshine, with a few clouds. Upper 60s to 70. Clouds rolling in late in the day and at night.
Tuesday - Wednesday: Warm and more humid. More clouds than sun. Expect periods of showers and possible Thunderstorms (esp. Wed) during this time. Mid 70s both days. If it clears out Wed night expect some fog.
Thursday - Friday: Extra special for early October. Sun and clouds, but nice and warm. Temps in the mid 70s Thursday to upper 70s on Friday with an increasing breeze and clouds later Friday from the W - SW.
Saturday: Starting out warm. Cloudy and windy with the possibility of some rain arriving or even a thunderstorm. A sharp cold front will likely pass through late at night. Temps 70 - 75.
Sun/Mon: I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rain end early Sunday morning. It will certainly be much colder as we enter the second week of Oct. Expect highs only near 60 Sunday and in the upper 50s for Monday. Frost/freezes may come into play early next week if the nights are clear and calm.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.