When I look back at my forecast for the remnants of Flo, it was going well, through Monday afternoon, however the heavy showers and storms did not materialize as I thought they would have. There were some that developed in northern VA and moved NE, not N like I expected. This led to some heavy rains for portions of SE PA. Checking the reports some areas saw over 2" of rain. Also, another heavy band (no thunderstorms just rain) developed from north central PA to Albany NY. So the potential was there, but the system got strung out.
Strung out? Yes, strung out. Like stretching a rubber band, as it is stretched the rubber band gets thinner. Think of that as precipitation. As it was stretched, it became thinner and less concentrated. Not that I am complaining. I just like to have an accurate forecast. But after all the rain we've had, I guess only 1" (plus of minus a little) seems like very little.
This was probably our last real flash flood threat of the year as we begin to transition to a more autumn pattern. It will remain mild/warm through Fri, but then a cooler change occurs. After this weekend, do not expect to see 80 degrees too often. Maybe once or twice, but summer is over.
We should still stay moist/wet but the storms will give us heavy rain over the better part of a day, rather than a couple of hours. Over-all I am looking for a good cool down with refreshing air, and lower humidity. We've endured a lot of it this year, and drier air would be welcome.
Full update later.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.