Midday Update ...

Midday Tuesday Update: 

Obviously more sun than I thought. Jose is about 75 miles further east than I thought.  Rain showers are nearing Philadelphia at this time, so 75 further west ... Still think there could be shower tonight, but by morning, Jose is move NE and away ... for now that is ... from us.  

Take the chance of shower/thunderstorm out for Wed. It will remain dry from Wed - next Sunday. Lots of sunshine and morning fog. Amazing fall weather. 

Maria Update: Pray for the people of Puerto Rico. This is storm will hammer this island very hard (barring a miracle from God that is!).  Thankfully the storm looks to lift NW and avoid most other islands. But will it impact the US?  Still too early to tell. Right now pray for the people to wise and to be safe. 

Discussion:

Hurricane Jose is turning out to be a bugger to forecast. And I laugh at this because, this storm highlights why you DO NOT REACT TO EVERY MODEL RUN!  If you do, you end up with several forecasts, and people thinking forecasters don’t have a clue was to what they are doing. The key is NOT the computer. It is the pattern.

Ironically, there were numerous private sector forecasters that wrote off Jose (“dying, torn apart, fade well out to sea”), however, he is having the last laugh, as Tropical storm watches have now been issued for the NE coastline from Delaware/Maryland line to Cape Cod.  I would hardly call that well out to sea. 

Personally, observations over the summer told me that the models would mess up the ridge strength, and send the hurricane too far NE, just like Irma. So, I included the chance for showers Mon and Tue. Now my mistake is that I am too fast by about 20 hours. The shower chances should be Tue into Wed. It will be breezy too. I really don’t expect too much rain, unless the boundary north of Jose holds together and pushes inland. This could become a focus for showers and storms producing some heavy rain. I think if this happens it will likely be to our east, but close enough, that showers and a thunderstorm will remain in the forecast through Wed.

Now where does Jose go after he passes close or over Cape Cod?  Good question. Probably not too far away. He could drift off to the east, the southeast or even the southwest!  Yes, he will not be disappearing anytime soon. But he will become a very weak system. No danger, except for lousy weather if he is nearby.

Then we have the challenge of Hurricane Maria. This storm will threaten the east coast late next week/weekend. It is my feeling that she will impact the east coast, and not curve out to sea. This is not good, as she could very well be a rather strong/powerful hurricane. This is turning out to be a busy and destructive year for the US it seems. Thankfully we went 12 years with no real problems with hurricanes before this.

Some challenges ahead, for sure. But there is one easy part: Mild to warm and humid conditions will persist through the next week. That is a given.
 
Dailies:

Monday: Partly sunny. Humid.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Breezy. Chance for showers.         
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Humid.       
Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy at times. Humid.   
Friday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid.  
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid.
Enjoy!