This heat episode is ending today with some showers and thunderstorms around. Any shower or storm will be capable of producing very heavy rain, much like yesterday. Not everyone will get the rain, but those that so could get quite a bit as the showers/storms will be slow movers. Many of us could still use the rain for our gardens, lawns, and ponds, but we will be in the initiation zone, meaning the showers/storms will be developing in and around us. Areas to our east will be in line for the most rain. A very beneficial rain will hit NY and New England today into tonight as well.
Tonight our humidity begins to move on out, and Sunday will feel much nicer. But by Tuesday we begin to heat up again. Before another brief cool down with a cold front moving through in Friday. Again a two day cool down and then more heat again. By heat I mean temps near 90 or higher, like this past Wed, Thu, and Fri.
The pattern heading forward is pretty straightforward. The Central Plains into the Southeast will be the source of heat, and we will be on the NE edge. This means our heat will surge in, then be pushed back; wash, rinse, repeat. This also places us in a zone that can get into some heavy clusters of thunderstorms which are very difficult to forecast. Yesterday is a classic example. Even the super short term US models could not get a 12 hour forecast correct in the placement of the storms. And last night a significant flash flood event hit Warren county (4.5 – 6” rain) and not one model nailed it that I saw. Some had absolutely nothing forecast. So even though some forecasts may appear dry the middle of next week, there will be chances for showers/storms most any day.
Points for Next 7 Days:
Saturday: 87. Sun and clouds. Hot. Humid. Chance for shower or thunderstorm.
Sunday: 83. Sun and clouds. Cooler. Less humid. Breeze at time.
Monday: 85. Mostly sunny. Pleasantly warm.
Tuesday: 89. Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Wednesday: 91. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. Slight chance for showers/storms.
Thursday: 93. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. Chance for showers/storms.
Friday: 90. Sun and clouds. Hot. Humid. Good chance for showers/storms.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.